The better you are at making good decisions, the more confident you’ll be and that translates into an enhanced sense of happiness and wellbeing.
In order to make a good decision, you need to develop a sense of: (1) how different choices change the likelihood of various outcomes and (2) how desirable each of those outcomes really might be.
Here are three basic considerations:
OVERCONFIDENCE – the chance of Choice A leading to Outcome B is less likely than you think. What else might you consider if you were less confident of your initial conclusions?
RATIONALITY - choices usually involve predictions such as how long will it take. Often, there’s a good deal of statistical data (your own or that of others) already available on your subject. Use it to move from the ‘inside view’, where you’re swamped by the specifics of your analysis to the ‘outside view’, where you start with a rational view of similar situations.
PROBABILITY – applying probability theory to your decision-making helps you to better express your uncertainty in concrete, numerical terms and avoid emotional bias. Start with Khan Academy’s introduction to coin flipping.